
Seems pretty clear here that Samuel tells Saul that God intended to establish Saul's lineage (Kingdom) in Israel forever. (pretty profound revalation if you ask me) But because of Saul's choice to disobey, God reacts to Saul's disobedience with an alternative route to accomplish His purpose of bringing about the Messiah. Since God's original intention was to establish Saul's kingdom forever as Samuel clearly states, it stands to reason that had Saul obeyed, it would have been his line that could be traced to Christ, not David's. That would be the only way Saul's kingdom in Israel could last forever.
The beauty of how God still fulfills His ultimate purpose and yet allows for Saul to make his free will choice to repent or rebel is shown here. That's the amazing sovereignty of God! We see His sovereignty manifested in two ways:
1) His initial sovereign decision to give Saul free will; and
2) His sovereignty in accomplishing His ultimate purpose of Salvation in rejecting Saul (after Saul refuses to repent) when the Spirit of God left Saul, and choosing another after His own heart to fulfill His purpose. This picture in 1 Samuel 13:13-14is not one of a powerless God at the mercy of Saul's choice. But rather, a sovereign God, who chose to create Saul (us) as free-will creatures in His image, where God can still accomplish His purpose in spite of us.
Certainly, Saul and David were both horrible sinners, unworthy of the grace of God. But the primary distinction between the two is this: Saul was not repentent when his sin was made known to him by Samuel. In stark contrast, when Nathan confronts David in his sin, David was repentent when he responds "I have sinned against the Lord!"...what a difference! The prophets Samuel and Nathan were a foreshadowing of how the Holy Spirit works with us today. We are blind to our own sin until the Holy Spirit comes to shine a light using God's Word to show us our sinfulness. How we respond when we are exposed is the key. Do we try and make excuses like Saul and refuse to admit we were wrong? Or do we fall to our knees and say "I have sinned against the Lord!"?
Had David tried to rationalize his sin or deny it, God would have done the same to David as He did to Saul! God would have rejected David and sought out another king to accomplish his purpose of Salvation. Why did Saul refuse to repent and David fully repented? No man knows the heart of another. And frankly it really doesn't matter. The key is that God's pleased with a repentent heart.
Both Saul and David had a free-will choice. Saul's decision thwarted God's plan for Saul's kingdom to be established forever, thus establishing the messianic line through Saul. But the tragedy was for Saul. Saul lost the blessing God had planned for him. But God's universal purpose was not harmed. God's plan of redemption could not be stopped. God, in His sovereignty, sought out another to fulfill His plan. God perseveres on our behalf! His grace could not be stopped!
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